What does Estimative probability mean?

Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEPs) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. Ineffective WEPs are vague or misleading about the likelihood of an event.

What are the chances of probably?

You can’t say “probably” means 80% chance while “likely” means 70% and “maybe” means 40% or any such. I’d quibble with the definition you quote: People often say “probably” meaning “more likely than not, over 50% chance”, far from “almost certainly”. I’d say anything over 50% could be called “probably”.

How do you describe likelihood?

: the chance that something will happen : probability There’s very little likelihood of that happening.

How do you express likelihood?

Express probabilities as ratios, fractions, and percents. A probability can be written as a ratio, a fraction, and a percent.

What is the meaning of words of estimative probability?

In Words of Estimative Probability Kent distinguished between ‘poets’ (those preferring wordy probabilistic statements) from ‘mathematicians’ (those preferring quantitative odds). To bridge the gap between them and decision makers, Kent developed a paradigm relating estimative terms to odds.

Who was the first person to use estimative probability?

The decision maker has to infer the prediction alone, thus increasing the likelihood of poor decision making or snap decision making. In 1964 Sherman Kent, one of the first contributors to a formal discipline of intelligence analysis, addressed the problem of misleading expressions of odds in National Intelligence Estimates (NIE).

How to calculate the probability of a word?

The following table ranks every word by the width of the IQR: Probability Word IQR Middle 50% About Even 0.0% 50.0% – 50.0% Almost No Chance 4.0% 1.0% – 5.0% Better than Even 5.0% 55.0% – 60.0% Highly Unlikely 5.0% 5.0% – 10.0%

When do you use the word likely in a sentence?

Intelligence judgments about likelihood are intended to reflect the Community’s sense of the probability of a development or event. […] We do not intend the term “unlikely” to imply an event will not happen. We use “probably” and “likely” to indicate there is a greater than even chance.