What is electrical load forecasting?
What is electrical load forecasting?
Load forecasting is a technique used by power companies to predict the power or energy needed to balance the supply and load demand at all the times. It is mandatory for proper functioning of electrical industry. In this paper, for medium and long term forecasting end use and econometric approach is used.
What are the methods of load forecasting?
Several methods have been used for electric load forecasting, such as regression analysis, exponential smoothing, and weighted iteration, and other improved algorithms including adaptive prediction and stochastic time series.
What is the need for load forecasting in power system?
Load forecasting is a technique used by power or energy-providing companies to predict the power/energy needed to meet the demand and supply equilibrium. The accuracy of forecasting is of great significance for the operational and managerial loading of a utility company.
Why do we need a load forecast?
With supply and demand fluctuating and the changes of weather condi- tions and energy prices increasing by a factor of ten or more during peak situations, load forecasting is vitally important for utilities. Short-term load forecasting can help to estimate load flows and to make decisions that can prevent overloading.
Which is the following is the use of long-term load forecasting?
Load forecasting problem is a complex nonlinear problem linked with economic and weather factors. Long-term load forecasting provides useful information for maintenance scheduling, adequacy assessment, and limited energy resources for electrical power systems.
What is the nature of load forecasting method?
This approach is based on searching historical data for days within one, two, or three years with similar characteristics to the forecast day. Similar characteristics include weather, day of the week, and the date. The load of a similar day is considered as a forecast.
What is peak load forecasting?
Abstract: Peak-load forecasting prevents energy waste and helps with environmental issues by establishing plans for the use of renewable energy. For that reason, the subject is still actively studied.
What is long-term load forecasting?
Long-term load forecasting (LTLF) usually covers forecasting horizons of one to ten years, and sometimes up to several decades. It provides weekly/monthly forecasts for peak and valley loads which are important to expand generation, transmission and distribution systems.
What are the factors affecting load forecasting?
These factors play an important role in developing the model for load forecasting. The various factors which affect the forecasting include historical information of load pattern, weather, air temperature, wind speed, calendar seasonal information, economical events and geographically information.
What is long term load forecasting?
What factors affect load forecasting?
What is a 50/50 forecast?
This means that there is a 50 percent chance that the actual system peak load will exceed the forecasted value in any given year or, to state it another way, it is expected that on the average the forecast will be exceeded once every two years.
Why is electric power load forecasting so important?
Therefore, Electric Power Load Forecasting (EPLF) is a vital process in the planning of electricity industry and the operation of electric power systems. Accurate forecasts lead to substantial savings in operating and maintenance costs, increased reliability of power supply and delivery system, and correct decisions for future development.
Why is it difficult to forecast electricity demand?
Demand pattern is almost very complex due to the deregulation of energy markets. Therefore, finding an appropriate forecasting model for a specific electricity network is not an easy task. Although many forecasting methods were developed, none can be generalized for all demand patterns.
Do you need lead time for electricity forecasting?
Also, proper planning and useful applications of electric load forecasting require particular “forecasting intervals,” also referred to as “lead time”.
Which is the best method for electricity forecasting?
Time series forecasting methods and their modifications (e.g. combinations and hybridizations) are the most popular methods for forecasting in general. De Gooijer and Hyndman [7] have introduced a magnificent general review for time series forecasting. Electricity load pattern is principally a time series.