What is scenario matrix?

Abstract. In the 2×2 matrix technique, scenarios are narratives describing how things might be by a medium- to long-term time horizon, e.g., 2025 or 2050. As such, they explore how the world would change, should certain trends emerge and particular events occur.

What is scenario strategy?

In the context of a business, scenario planning is a way to assert control over an uncertain world by identifying assumptions about the future and determining how your organization will respond. Crafting the narrative requires a clear set of assumptions about potential business realities and ensuing outcomes.

What are the 5 steps of scenario planning process?

The 5 Steps of the Strategic Planning Process

1. Determine your strategic position.
2. Prioritize your objectives.
3. Develop a strategic plan.
4. Execute and manage your plan.
5. Review and revise the plan.

What are the basic steps of scenario planning?

Scenario Planning Process

• Step 1: Brainstorm Future Scenarios. In the very first step you need to decide a time frame.
• Step 2: Identify trends and driving forces.
• Step 3: Create A Scenario Planning Template.
• Step 4: Develop a Scenario.
• Step 5: Evaluate a Scenario.
• Step 6: Update Strategies and Policies Accordingly.

How is the scenario matrix used in strategic planning?

At the heart of scenario identification is the scenario matrix. The scenario matrix is based upon the two key uncertainty factors that have been identified in step three, the trend and uncertainty analysis, of our six-step process to scenario-based strategic planning using the. ‘Impact/Uncertainty Grid’ tool.

What do you need to know about scenario planning?

Guide and Best Practices Scenario planning is a widely used strategic planning tool. It is also referred to as scenario analysis and scenario thinking. It is used by organizations as a tool to visualize possible future events and conditions that may affect them and take precautionary measures to control the impact.

How is Monte Carlo simulation used in scenario planning?

For connecting scenario planning to project evaluation, using Monte Carlo simulation, see: P.J.H. Schoemaker, “When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration,” Journal of Forecasting 10 (1991): 549–564.

Which is the best technique for scenario building?

Scenario Building: The 2×2 Matrix Technique. This collective scenario generation technique pairs the two drivers of the highest importance and the greatest uncertainty for the topic under study as axes creating a 2×2 matrix which forms the basis for possible scenarios.