What is ex post forecast?

Ex-post is a forecast prepared at a certain time that uses data available after that time. The forecasts are created when future observations are identified during the forecasting period. It is used to observe known data to assess the forecasting model.

What is ex post risk?

Ex-post risk refers to the risks experienced by a portfolio in the past (ex-post = after the fact). Ex-post risk is often used in value at risk (VaR) analysis—a tool used to give investors the best estimate of the potential loss that they could expect to incur on any given trading day.

What is meant by expost investment?

Ex-post investment refers to the actual investment in the economy during the period of one year. This aspect of investment is considered in the calculation of National Income.

What is ex post rational price?

The ex post rational price is widely used to determine whether stock market price movements are rational responses to market news or not, and as such may prove pivotal to policy-makers in determining regulation of new and existing capital markets.

Why is one considered to be ex-post and the other ex-ante?

When transcribed from Latin, ex-ante is the prediction of a particular event in the future, such as the potential returns. On the other hand, ex-post means “after the event,” while ex-ante means “before the event.” Ex-post is backward-looking, and it looks at results after they have already occurred.

What is the difference between the ex-ante and the ex-post real interest rate?

While the ex-post real rate is simply the difference between the nominal interest rate and actual inflation, the ex-ante real rate is defined as the difference between the nominal rate and the expected inflation rate.

Why ex-post saving is equal to ex-post investment?

Ex-post investment refers to the realised or actual investment in an economy during a year. It must be noted that ex-post saving and ex-post investment are equal at all levels of income. This equality between the two is brought by fluctuations in income.

How do you calculate ex-post risk?

Ex post expected return calculations are based on historical data. Add the historical returns and then divide by the number of observations.

What is the difference between actual ex post and expected ex ante returns?

How is ex ante demand different from ex post demand?

In Economics, ex ante demand means the amount of any commodity or service that a consumer is willing or expected to consume or purchase and ex post demand indicates the amount of the commodity or service that is actually purchased or consumed by the consumer or buyer.

How do you calculate ex-post real interest rate?

The inflation rate during the loan period is only known after the loan’s been paid, which is referred to as the ex-post real interest on the loan. In this case, the ex-post interest rate is calculated as follows: Nominal Rate – Actual Inflation Rate (10% – 10% = 0%).

Can ex-ante real interest rates be negative?

Nominal interest rates cannot be negative. Ex-post real interest rates can well be negative if the inflation rate during a period has been sufficiently high. If money is held to transfer wealth from one period to another, the value of money suffers from inflation as well.